Wheat and Corn Outlook Remains Tight

The Grain: World Markets and Trade report, published by USDA finds this could be another year of volatile prices with tight exportable supplies of corn and wheat. In contrast, the rice world supplies are relatively abundant.

Against the backdrop of low carry-in corn and wheat stocks, expectations of a large rebound in global exportable supplies now remain uncertain after delayed corn plantings in the United States, reduced U.S. winter wheat production, continued dryness in the EU, and wet conditions in Canada.

Global corn production is forecast up 52 MMT over last year, with the United States expected to account for half of the gain. However, nearly all of the growth in global corn consumption is expected to come from foreign demand, in countries such as Brazil, China, and Mexico. For wheat, the year-to-year gain in production is a more modest 21 MMT, with more than three-quarters of the rebound coming from larger expected crops in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. As a result, production and consumption are expected to be in balance, compared to last year’s shortfall of 14 MMT.

Corn and wheat ending stocks in the exporting countries are up slightly year-to-year, leaving little supply cushion in the event of adverse weather impacting crops. For corn, the exporting countries are: Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. For wheat the exporters include: Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, United States, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine.

Traditional Exporter Stocks Decline Again

A key price factor for the world wheat market is the level of stocks held by traditional exporters: Australia, Canada, the EU, Argentina and the United States. Ending stocks are expected to tighten somewhat this year.

The biggest drop is in the United States, but stocks are still abundant. So far this year, the US has exported 33.4 MMT of wheat (46.6 percent higher than this time last
year), 32.1 MMT of corn (2.5 percent less), 37.5 MMT of soybeans (3.4 percent more), 2.8 MMT of sorghum (15.9 percent less) and 119.2 TMT of barley (30.0 percent more).

Slight increases are expected in Australia and the EU, partly offsetting the decline. Although stock levels are expected to recover in Russia and Ukraine, restrictive government export policies will continue to impact prices.

Idaho Crop Progress Update

USDA’s May 23 Crop Progress and Condition report shows spring wheat seeding mostly complete. Northern and some parts of Eastern Idaho have continued to experience planting delays due to the cool, wet weather.

Winter wheat condition are rated 84% Good to Excellent, 15% Fair to Poor and 1% Very Poor. Spring Wheat is rated 75% Good to Excellent and 25% Fair to Poor.

Several locations across the state are reporting stripe rust in winter wheat -- Nyssa, OR, to Parma, Idaho, to Cassia County, Aberdeen, Bingham County, Idaho, American Falls, Power County, Idaho.

To view the entire USDA report click on this link: http//www.nass.usda.gov/id/

Farm States Continue to Suffer From Expanded Drought

USAgNet reports today a dire drought that has plagued Texas and parts of Oklahoma expanded across the key farming state of Kansas over the last week, adding to struggles of wheat farmers already dealing with weather-ravaged fields.

Harvest in Kansas, the top U.S. wheat-growing state, is set to begin within weeks. But a report issued Thursday by a consortium of climatologists said the three most severe levels of drought spread across the state over the last week, with the most dire conditions concentrated in the key wheat-growing south-central and southwest parts.

According to Reuters, Kansas now has 50 percent of the state suffering severe levels of drought or worse, up from 41 percent last week. The Drought Monitor shows that just three months ago, less than 4 percent of Kansas was suffering severe drought or worse. The drought is eroding production potential at a time when every bushel counts.

Meanwhile, wheat harvest is underway and production is expected to be curtailed substantially because of the drought.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 11 forecast that Kansas would harvest 261.8 million bushels of wheat this summer, down from 27 percent from a year ago. The Texas and Oklahoma wheat crops are forecast to fall more than 50 percent because of the drought, causing the overall U.S. winter wheat crop to be estimated as the smallest in five years.

Severe drought stress can be easily seen in many Kansas fields, which typically produce hard red winter wheat, the chief bread-making type.

Wheat futures prices have surged because of the production shortfalls. Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures have jumped nearly 20 percent over the last week and hit a three-month high this week on worries the drought will harm the U.S. wheat crop.

Idaho Crop Progress Update

USDA’s May 16 Crop Progress & Condition reports spring wheat seeding has progressed since last week with 78% of the state planted, up from 66% last week, but still lagging below the five-year average of 90%.

The biggest problem area continues to be northern Idaho where only 52% is planted, up only modestly from last week and well below the five-year average of 90% for this time of year.

Winter wheat conditions continue to be favorable with 84% Good to Excellent, 11% Fair, 4% Poor and only 1% reporting Very Poor.
To view the entire USDA report click on this link: http//www.nass.usda.gov/id/

Cool, Wet Weather Gives Rise to Stripe Rust

From Nyssa, OR, to Parma, Idaho, to Cassia County, Aberdeen, Bingham County, Idaho, American Falls, Power County, Idaho.

Expanding reports of stripe rust continue in commercial wheat fields. Affected fields include the varieties ‘Brundage’ soft white winter wheat, and ‘Malcolm’, soft white winter wheat, Stephens (SWW), and lower levels are being reported in Moreland (HRW), WB 528 (SWW), WB 470 (SWW), but it is expected that other susceptible winter and spring varieties will also begin to show symptoms soon. Stripe rust has also been found in the Aberdeen area on the University of Idaho’s research farm. The infected plants were at the jointing growth stage. New leaves were not yet showing infection; the disease was occurring on lower leaves likely as a result of an infection that started last fall. Infected plants that were covered by an insulating layer of snow carried the fungus through the winter and is the current source of the disease.

On the Aberdeen research station, Brundage had about 30% affected leaves throughout the plot, while Moreland about 5% of the leaves affected. Active and abundant spores were seen on infected plants. Stripe rust was prevalent throughout the winter wheat variety trials.

Resistant varieties should not need fungicide applications. Growers should scout all wheat fields and should never assume that resistant varieties will always be resistant, as the prevalent strains of the fungi can change, affecting different varieties.

The weather has been very conducive for infection and rapid spread. It is imperative to protect susceptible varieties with a fungicide as yield losses to this disease can be significant. Both strobilurin (Quadris, Headline) and triazole (Caramba, Tilt, Proline, Folicur, Prosaro) fungicides are equally effective in protecting against subsequent stripe rust infections, as are mixed mode-of-action fungicides (TwinLine, Quilt, Quilt Excel, Stratego). However, if stripe rust is currently in your crop, it is recommended that you include a triazole fungicide for the slightly curative activity.

Fungicide ratings for stripe rust from the mid-west are: Excellent = azoxystrobin (Quadris), pyraclostrobin (Headline), metconazole (Caramba), tebuconazole (Folicur), and fungicide mixes rated Excellent for stripe rust includes prothioconazole and tebuconazole (both found in Prosaro), and the strobiluron / triazole mixes line, Twinline, Quilt or Quilt Xcel. Rated very good was propiconizole (Tilt), and the mix of propiconazole and trifloxystrobin (Stratego). In the 2011 Pacific Northwest Plant Disease Management Handbook, Bumper was additionally listed for an effective foliar fungicide.

This information is provided only as a guide. Other fungicides may also be labeled and effective against stripe rust. Inclusion in this list is not intended as a product endorsement and exclusion from this list is not meant to imply other products are ineffective.

Additional information and pictures are available on the Cereals Extension website for southern and southeast Idaho: http://www.extension.uidaho.edu/scseidaho/disease/disease_index.htm

Net Farm Income Expected To Increase 20 Percent in 2011

Net value added, net farm income, and net cash income—the three key U.S. farm sector financial indicators—are expected to improve in 2011. Net farm income (a measure of profitability that accounts for inventories and capital consumption), is forecast to reach $94.7 billion in 2011, up nearly 20 percent from the 2010 forecast, and the second highest inflation-adjusted value for net farm income in the past 37 years. Over the past three decades, the top five years for nominal earnings have occurred since 2004, attesting to the profitability of farming in 2000-2009.

Net value added, USDA’s measure of agriculture’s contribution to the U.S. economy’s production of goods and services, is forecast to rise by $18.4 billion (14.2 percent). Net cash income (a measure of the ability to pay bills and make payments on debt) mimics these increases and is projected to increase $7.3 billion (8 percent).

Farm Production Expenses Were Up During Past Year

The April price index for U.S. farm production inputs increased 16 percent from a year ago. The USDA says higher prices for nitrogen, feed grains, diesel, and complete feeds more than offset lower prices for concentrates, supplements, and herbicides. Fertilizer prices showed the largest increases, followed by fuels.

Compared to April 2010, prices paid for fertilizer was up 34 percent. The increase can be attributed to nitrogen rising by 40 percent, mixed fertilizer by 33 percent, and potash and phosphate by 21 percent.

Fuels saw a 31 percent increase from April 2010. Diesel prices increased 37 percent, gasoline 31 percent, and LP gas 8.3 percent from the previous year.

Feed increased 29 percent from April 2010. Prices rose for all feed categories. Feed grains saw the largest increase, at 88 percent. Complete feeds were up 25 percent, hay and forages 24 percent, concentrates 11 percent, and supplements 6.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the national seed price index rose 18 percent from April of last year. Field crop seed prices were 19 percent higher, while grass and legume seed prices rose 4.3 percent from a year ago. U.S. chemical prices were unchanged from April 2010. Fungicides were up 4.2 percent and insecticides increased 1.8 percent, while herbicides were down 3.0 percent.

The U.S. prices paid index for machinery rose 5.7 percent from April 2010. The price indices for both tractors and self propelled machinery were up 6.8 percent, and other machinery prices increased 3.8 percent.

Idaho April Weather Brings Expectations for High Runoff

April's cool, moist weather held off the snow melt and even added to the mountain snowpack according to the latest snow survey conducted by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. This summer's water supply is forecast to be plentiful for Idaho's water users but the spring runoff is expected to be high.

"The water supply analysis completed last week shows that April's precipitation and cool temperatures added significant amounts of water to the snowpack," said Jeff Burwell, Idaho State Conservationist. "While this contributes to an ample water supply, it increases concern over how the runoff season will unfold."

The whole state received above average precipitation in April. Precipitation ranged from 110% of average in regions of central Idaho to 250% of average in the Northern Panhandle. However, lingering cool spring temperatures delayed the snow melt creating a potentially threatening runoff season.

"Usually the mid-elevation snowpacks begin melting in April - at least 25% of the snowpack melts off," said Ron Abramovich, NRCS Water Supply Specialist. "Not this year. Below normal temperatures prevented snow melt in the mid-elevation range and kept the headwater streamflow levels below normal."

"The May 1 mountain snowpack is above average ranging from 125 to 190% of average. And, now there is a shorter runoff season," said Abramovich. "This means more streamflow in a shorter time period."

The timing and magnitude of peak streamflows depend on spring temperatures, consecutive hot days, non-freezing night temperatures, and if rain falls when the snow is melting. Reservoir operators across Idaho are drawing down reservoir levels to increase water storage space.

"Our current Water Supply Report forecasts river levels and volumes to be above average through the summer," Burwell added. "Whether you are a river runner or a water manager, expect extremely variable conditions."

View May's full report on snowpack, precipitation, runoff and water supply predictions at http://www.id.nrcs.usda.gov/snow%20
and click on the 'Water Supply' link.

Interior Releases Report Highlighting Impacts of Climate Change to Western Water Resources

Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar recently released a report that assesses climate change risks and how these risks could impact water operations, hydropower, flood control, and fish and wildlife in the western United States. The report to Congress, represents the first consistent and coordinated assessment of risks to future water supplies across eight major Reclamation river basins, including the Colorado, Rio Grande and Missouri river basins.

“Water is the lifeblood of our communities, rural and urban economies, and our environment,” said Secretary Salazar, “and small changes in water supplies or the timing of precipitation can have a big impact on all of us. This report provides the foundation for understanding the long-term impacts of climate change on Western water supplies and will help us identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resource management.”

The report, which responds to requirements under the SECURE Water Act of 2009, shows several increased risks to western United States water resources during the 21st century. Specific projections include:

A temperature increase of 5-7 degrees Fahrenheit
A precipitation increase over the northwestern and north-central portions of the western United States and a decrease over the southwestern and south-central areas;
A decrease for almost all of the April 1st snowpack, a standard benchmark measurement used to project river basin runoff;
And an 8 to 20 percent decrease in average annual stream flow in several river basins, including the Colorado, the Rio Grande, and the San Joaquin.

The report notes that projected changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to impact the timing and quantity of stream flows in all western basins, which could impact water available to farms and cities, hydropower generation, fish and wildlife, and other uses such as recreation.

Follow the link to read the entire report http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/Interior-Releases-Report-Highlighting-Impacts-of-Climate-Change-to-Western-Water-Resources.cfm?renderforprint=1&

Net Farm Income Expected To Increase 20 Percent in 2011

Net value added, net farm income, and net cash income—the three key U.S. farm sector financial indicators—are expected to improve in 2011. Net farm income (a measure of profitability that accounts for inventories and capital consumption), is forecast to reach $94.7 billion in 2011, up nearly 20 percent from the 2010 forecast, and the second highest inflation-adjusted value for net farm income in the past 37 years. Over the past three decades, the top five years for nominal earnings have occurred since 2004, attesting to the profitability of farming in 2000-2009.

Net value added, USDA’s measure of agriculture’s contribution to the U.S. economy’s production of goods and services, is forecast to rise by $18.4 billion (14.2 percent). Net cash income (a measure of the ability to pay bills and make payments on debt) mimics these increases and is projected to increase $7.3 billion (8 percent).

Idaho Winter Wheat Acreage Up 11% From 2010

The latest USDA Crop Production report showed Idaho's winter wheat acreage will grow to 790 thousand acres, up 11% from 2010. Idaho winter wheat production is forecast at 62 million bushels, up 7% over 2010. The yield per acre is forecast to be down slightly due to less favorable growing conditions. Total 2011 harvest in Idaho, combining winter and spring wheat, is currently forecast at 107 million bushel. Delays in spring planting in northern Idaho may cause this number to soften in the next NASS update.

The USDA Crop Production report for 2011 was released this morning, and it forecast total U.S. winter wheat production will fall slightly to 1.42 billion bushels, down 4 percent from 2010. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 32.0 million acres, up 1 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the total U.S. yield is forecast at 44.5 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter, at 762 million bushels, is down 25 percent from 2010. Soft Red Winter, at 427 million bushels, is up 80 percent from last year. White Winter is up 3 percent from last year and totals 235 million bushels. Of this total, 11.7 million bushels are Hard White and 224 million bushels are Soft White.

To view the entire USDA report click on this link: http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/crop0511.pdf

Farm Production Expenses Were Up During Past Year

The USDA says higher prices for nitrogen, feed grains, diesel, and complete feeds more than offset lower prices for concentrates, supplements, and herbicides. Fertilizer prices showed the largest increases, followed by fuels. The April price index for U.S. farm production inputs, at 215, increased 16 percent from a year ago.

Compared to April 2010, the U.S. prices paid index for fertilizer was up 34 percent. The increase can be attributed to nitrogen rising by 40 percent, mixed fertilizer by 33 percent, and potash and phosphate by 21 percent.

The U.S. prices paid index for fuels saw a 31 percent increase from April 2010. Diesel prices increased 37 percent, gasoline 31 percent, and LP gas 8.3 percent from the previous year.

The U.S. prices paid index for feed increased 29 percent from April 2010. Prices rose for all feed categories. Feed grains saw the largest increase, at 88 percent. Complete feeds were up 25 percent, hay and forages 24 percent, concentrates 11 percent, and supplements 6.4 percent.

Meanwhile, the national seed price index rose 18 percent from April of last year. Field crop seed prices were 19 percent higher, while grass and legume seed prices rose 4.3 percent from a year ago. U.S. chemical prices were unchanged from April 2010. Fungi-cides were up 4.2 percent and insecticides increased 1.8 percent, while herbicides were down 3.0 percent.

The U.S. prices paid index for machinery rose 5.7 percent from April 2010. The price indices for both tractors and self propelled machinery were up 6.8 percent, and other machinery prices in-creased 3.8 percent.

From Farm to Port, Japanese Milling Executives Tour U.S. Wheat Industry

A team of five milling executives from Japan is visiting the United States as part of an annual educational tour sponsored by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW). The team, which represents some of the largest and oldest milling companies in Japan, will travel across the country from Washington, DC, to Boise, ID, and Portland, OR, to gain first-hand knowledge of current winter wheat crop conditions as well as issues affecting overall wheat supply and demand.

The Japanese team will be in the United States May 3 to 10. In that time, they will have discussions with representatives from nearly every sector of the wheat industry on a variety of topics, including increasing investment in wheat research, soft white (SW) wheat supply and rising production costs.

“Our ability to meet Japan’s strict contract specifications keeps them as a steady customer of U.S. wheat,” U.S. Wheat Associates Japan Country Director Wataru “Charlie” Utsunomiya said. “Participation in a team like this one develops close working relationships and mutual reliance between U.S. wheat farmers and Japanese millers.”

U.S. wheat farmers have maintained this close connection since 1949, when the Oregon Wheat Growers League (OWGL) organized a trade delegation to Japan. Following that trip, a variety of marketing and educational activities were started in Japan to promote U.S. wheat, including a school lunch program and a “Kitchen on Wheels” that travelled through rural Japan from 1956 to 1960.

Since that time, Japan has purchased significantly more U.S. wheat than any other country, importing more than 133 million bushels per year on average for the last five years. Total U.S. wheat purchases now conservatively reach $700 million per year, more than 10 percent of total U.S. wheat exports. Japan imports significant amounts of hard red spring (HRS), hard red winter (HRW) and SW wheat for use in domestic products.

The Japanese milling industry suffered less damage following the devastating earthquake and tsunami this March than the nation’s feed mill industry. Most of Japan’s flour mills are located outside of the region struck by the disaster. The biggest difficulty following the disaster and continuing today is the supply of sufficient electrical power to operate the mills at full capacity.