Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Is it fair for land-grant universities to make deals based on their research?


Columnist Ed Lotterman discusses the history of Land Grant Universities, their research contributions and future funding sources.

Substantial proportions of the cost of running land-grant universities like the University of Idaho still come from state and federal government, although the proportion is dropping in most states. Given this public funding, should these universities give away new technology they develop, or should they commercialize it in a way that maximizes their income?

The land-grant system has been facing that question for well over a decade now, but in the face of further declines in government funding, the issue is increasing in importance. Here in my home state of Minnesota we have what may seem like a brouhaha in a bushel basket over how the university is commercializing a new apple it developed. But it has important implications for the way we pay for and perform research and disseminate new technology in an era where taxpayers are less willing to foot the bill.

The specific issue is that university researchers developed a new apple, the SweeTango, that promises to be a big commercial success just like the Honeycrisp, one of its parent varieties also developed here 35 years ago.

The current controversy stems from the fact that the university signed an exclusive agreement with the state's largest apple grower to commercialize the new apple. That company in turn formed a marketing cooperative of 45 growers in five states and two Canadian provinces to grow and sell it.

Other orchards in the state also can grow the apple, but they face limits on how many they can grow and how they may sell the fruit. Some of these growers have filed a lawsuit alleging the exclusive deal violates federal and state laws and run counter to the historic mission of the agricultural research and extension system.
That system, consisting of land-grant universities, agricultural experiment stations and the federal-state-county cooperative extension service, has added tremendously to the wealth of our country over the past 148 years, belying the now-commonly held but erroneous view that government cannot create wealth.

Framers of the U.S. Constitution recognized that it was important to promote “the progress of science and useful arts” and, in Article 1, Section 1, gave Congress the power to issue patents and copyrights. But 70 years later, it was clear to many that even with these legal incentives to innovation, a free market would not produce economically optimal levels of technology research and dissemination. And so Congress passed the Morrill Act granting federal lands to states to fund colleges of “agriculture and the mechanic arts.” Ongoing federal funding for agricultural research and extension eventually followed.

All this took place before any formal economics of research and technology transfer. But these actions were fully congruent with modern theory. Much scientific research is what economists call a “public good.” That means without government action, it won't be produced in sufficient quantities for an economy to reach optimal efficiency.

This was particularly true for agriculture, because unlike for patentable machinery, it is impossible to keep new varieties of plants or new farming techniques from spreading to everyone. In the 1870s, if Corliss designed a better steam engine or Singer improved the sewing machine, these companies could get patents that allowed them to reap financial benefits from their research and engineering. But before the development of hybrids whose seeds did not reproduce the parent plant, any seed company that developed a new variety of corn would be unable to prevent corn growers from passing seeds from their crop on to other growers.

In any case, government support of agricultural research and extension fostered productivity growth that greatly aided overall economic growth in our country, just as it is doing for Brazil right now. Federal and state funds supported teaching, research and extension with new technology made available to all at no cost.
When we finally got around to funding basic and applied research in physics, chemistry and other fields, largely as a result of World War II, the Cold War and the space race, we found this also boosted productivity and economic growth. So did government funding of biomedical research. Our economy would have grown faster if we had started such government funding earlier.

But things have changed. We no longer are willing to fund many sorts of research at past levels. Some of this is justified by changed circumstances. Once corn was hybridized, farmers could not save their own seed for replanting; the private sector took over much corn breeding because it could charge enough for superior varieties to recoup research costs. The same is true for some genetically modified plants. But taxpayer reluctance to support the effort is another reason for the funding cuts.

This puts land-grant universities in a bind. The local university has more than a century of experience developing fruit varieties for cold regions. No private company matches that, and it's unlikely a private firm would spring up to tackle the task if the university terminated its program. The same is true for its research on wheat diseases and myriad other problems.

Changes in patent law allow developers of plant varieties to charge users for improved genetics. But once public institutions that still receive state and federal funds start to charge for technology they produce, questions of fairness inevitably arise that would not apply in transactions between two private companies.

Monday, October 4, 2010

USDA Announces 2011 Projected Crop Prices


Growers who will purchase crop insurance for the 2011 planting season now know their basic level of coverage.

The USDA Risk Management Agency has announced the 2011 projected price for winter wheat and barley, fall canola and rapeseed and the Malting Barley Additional Value Price.

Winter wheat is projected at $7.12 a bushel. Winter barley is projected at $3.91 a bushel. Fall canola is projected at $0.183 per pound. Fall rapeseed is projected at $0.208 per pound.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Local Wheat Prices Mixed This Week


Local wheat prices were mixed this week: SWW ranged from 10 cents lower to 10 cents higher; HRW ranged from 16 cents lower to 2 cents higher; and DNS ranged from 3 to 36cents higher.

U.S. wheat export sales last week for MY 2010/11 were well above trade expectations at 950.3 TMT, but were offset by a 490.5 TMT cancellation for MY 2011/12. Current marketing year sales were up 96% from the previous week and 7% from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments last week totaled 918.6 TMT, up 5% from the previous week and 40% from the previous 4-week average.

The EU approved 527 TMT of wheat export licenses this week, bringing their cumulative wheat export licenses for the marketing year to 5.3 MMT, compared to 4.2 MMT for the same period last year. Some traders are speculating that EU may be sold out of milling quality wheat stocks by the end of December.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has pegged Argentine wheat production at 7.9 MMT, due to current dry conditions, compared to USDA’s current estimate of 12 MMT. Egypt purchased 220 TMT of hard wheat from the U.S. this week.

Exporter Wheat Supplies Meet Global Demand, But Prices Surge


Wheat stocks in traditional exporter countries, (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and the United States), while lower than last year, are still the second highest in 5years. Ending stocks are larger this month for several reasons; 1) expanded supplies in Canada, and 2) quality deterioration in the EU means fewer exports but higher wheat prices increase domestic substitution of other grains in feeding. On the other hand, stocks are expected to decline 1.4 million tons in the United States due to increased export demand.

Wheat prices have surged 65 percent since the beginning of July, driven mostly by market uncertainty over supplies from the Black Sea region. The wheat crops in both Russia and Kazakhstan have been devastated by drought, while the crop in Ukraine also suffered from adverse weather conditions. Russia’s export ban and Ukraine’s export slow-down, combined with production shortfalls, have created uncertainty and contributed to market volatility. However, prices are still well below the record average price of $368/ton, reached in 2007/08.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Wheat Production Reported Down 2% From August


USDA made some small changes in its August forecasts of wheat production in the small grains summary released in its Sept 30 Small Grains Summary Report.

All wheat production in 2010 is now estimated at 2.224 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the August forecast but still slightly above 2009 production. All winter wheat production is pegged at 1.485 billion bushels, HRW at 1.018 b bu, SRW at 238 million bushels and white wheat at 229 m bu. Other spring wheat production increased to 627 m bu, up from 584 m bu in 2009, and durum production totaled 111 m bu, compared to 109 m bu a year ago.

Barley is another small grain in production decline. USDA estimated production at 182million bushels, down 20 percent from 2009, even though average yield is projected at 73.6 bushels an acre, up slightly from last year. Like oats, the barley acres harvested were down 21 percent from 2009, the lowest level since 1882.

U.S. Wheat Exports Highest in 20 Years


USAgNet reports the 2010 crop year is turning out better than expected for many U.S. producers, due to expanding demand for U.S. wheat which is pushing prices higher. USDA is currently projecting exports to reach 1.25 billion bushels, up more than 40 percent from the very low 2009 level and similar to 2007 when exports reached 1.26 billion. Still many analysts feel the latest estimate is conservative and anticipate final exports could rival the 1992 level of more than 1.35 billion.

As of mid-September, of U.S. wheat sales have reached 570 million, up nearly 60 percent from last year, and ahead of the pace needed to reach USDA's goal. Hard red winter and hard red spring have been the biggest benefactors so far. Hard red winter sales are at 265 million bushels, compared to only 125 million a year ago, as they have gained the most by the shift in demand from the Russian export ban. Recently, more competitive prices from French wheat into North Africa and some pullback in other markets, has slowed the weekly sales pace for the U.S., but demand is expected to remain as strong as our rail and export capacity allows.

The U.S. achieved strong yields nationwide on the 2010 crop and overall grade parameters on the hard red crops are high as well, despite below average protein levels on both the winter and spring crops for a second consecutive year. Comparatively, U.S. protein levels are still at the high end of the world wheat mix. USDA's latest production estimate is 2.26 billion bushels, about 50 million bushels higher than 2009, despite nearly 2 million fewer acres. A record national yield estimate of 46.9 bushels per acre is 2 bushel higher than last year. The stronger production and large carryover supplies from 2009 will push available supplies in the current marketing year to 3.3 billion bushels, up from 3 billion last year. Imports are expected to fall to 100 million bushels, compared to 119 million last year, and are likely to drop further, on weaker demand from U.S. millers for Canadian wheat due to a stronger Canadian dollar and a sharp drop in anticipated Canadian quality.

Total demand for U.S. wheat in the 2010 marketing year could exceed 2.4 billion bushels, higher than production and imports, supporting a net decline in year-end inventories. Domestic use is expected to grow to 1.19 billion compared to 1.14 billion last year. Food use accounts for 940 million bushels, up from 917 million in 2009, and feed use should rise marginally to 170 million bushels, compared to 149 million last year.

Year end inventories at the end of May 2011 will remain large at 902 million bushels, compared to a mere 306 million at the end of May 2008, but it is certainly more supportive to prices than earlier projections which had U.S. inventories exceeding 1 billion by the end of the marketing year. Average producer prices are expected to range from $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel, compared to $4.87 last year. Higher protein hard red wheat and higher grades of durum will average more, but the rise in world wheat prices has benefitted all classes. This should make for a strong profit year for most producers, especially when combined with above average yields.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Chicago wheat futures Wednesday slipped to 2-month low


Xinhua News Agency reporsts that Chicago wheat futures Wednesday slipped to 2-month low thanks to improved condition for wheat planting in world's major producers. Soybeans also saw further drop while corns rallied on increased demands.

December wheat fell 0.2 cents, or 3.2 percent, to 6.835 U.S. dollars per bushel. November soybean shed 11 cents, or one percent, to 10.99 dollars per bushel. December corn gained five cents, or one percent, to 5.05 dollars per bushel.

Traders said the ongoing fundamental pressure for wheat mainly comes from improved conditions for winter planting in Russia and U. S. as well as favorable growing conditions in Australia and Argentina

According to weather forecasts, some regions in the west and south of Russia may enjoy 0.2 inch of rainfall on Thursday and eastern Ukraine may get one inch by Oct. 1

Gasoline climbed to a two-week high as a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in supplies while manufacturing accelerated for a second month in China, the second-biggest oil consumer. The rally in gasoline will help boost ethanol demand and usage of corn.