U.S. 2011 wheat carryover down 5% from September

World Grain reports that U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2011, was projected at 853 million bushels, down 49 million bushels, or 5%, from 902 million bushels forecast in September and down 123 million bushels, or 13%, from 976 million bushels in 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Oct. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

U.S. all-wheat production was projected at 2.224 billion bushels for 2010-11, down 41 million bushels, or 2%, from September but up 6 million bushels from 2.218 billion bushels a year earlier. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.299 billion bushels, down 39 million bushels, or 1%, from September but up 306 million bushels, or 10%, from 2.993 billion bushels in 2009-10, the USDA said.

Exports of U.S. wheat for 2010-11 were projected at 1.25 billion bushels, unchanged from September but up 369 million bushels, or 42%, from 881 million bushels in 2009-10.

The USDA projected domestic food use of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 at 940 million bushels, unchanged from September but up 23 million bushels, or 3%, from 917 million bushels in 2009-10, and seed use at 76 million bushels, also unchanged from September but up 7 million bushels from 69 million bushels last year. Feed and residual use was projected at 180 million bushels, up 10 million bushels, or 6%, from September and up 30 million bushels, or 20%, from 150 million bushels in 2009-10. Total use was projected at 2.446 billion bushels, up 10 million from September and up 428 million bushels, or 21%, from 2.018 billion bushels in 2009-10.

The average farm price of U.S. wheat in 2010-11 was projected to fall in a range of $5.20-$5.80 a bushels, up from $4.95-$5.65 in September and compared with $4.87 a bushel in 2009-10 and $6.78 a bushel in 2008-09.

On a by-class basis, the USDA projected June 1, 2011 carryover of hard winter wheat at 338 million bushels, down 11 million bushels from September and down 47 million bushels from 385 million bushels in 2010. Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 158 million bushels, down 21 million bushels from September and down 84 million bushels, or 35%, from 242 million bushels in 2010.

Hard spring wheat carryover on June 1, 2011 was projected at 232 million bushels, down 17 million bushels from September and down 2 million bushels from 2010.

White wheat carryover was projected at 88 million bushels in 2011, up 2 million bushels from September and up 8 million bushels from 80 million bushels in 2010.

Durum carryover on June 1, 2011 was projected at 37 million bushels, down 2 million bushels from September but up 2 million bushels from 2010.

Global 2010-11 wheat production was projected at 641.44 million tonnes, down 1.57 million tonnes from September and down 40.71 million tonnes, or 6%, from 682.15 million tonnes the previous year. Global wheat use was projected at 663.31 million tonnes, up 2.12 million tonnes from September and up 12.35 million tonnes, or 2%, from 650.96 million tonnes in 2009-10. World exports were projected at 126.23 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from 126.03 million tonnes in September but down 9.09 million tonnes, or 7%, from 135.32 million tonnes in the prior year. World wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected at 174.66 million tonnes, down 3.13 million tonnes from September and down 21.87 million tonnes, or 11%, from 196.53 million tonnes in 2009-10.

"Global wheat supplies for 2010-11 are projected 1 million tonnes lower, mostly reflecting lower production in the United States," the USDA said.