USDA Projects Lower Grain Exports

In the September 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA projected wheat, corn, and soybean total exports in the coming crop year (2011/12) to be 4.09 billion bushels, 12 percent lower than the 2010/11 crop year. U.S. corn exports for 2011/12 are projected to be 1.650 billion bushels, 10 percent lower than last year. The national average corn yield is forecast to be 148.1 bushels per acre, 16.3 bushels below the 2009/2010 crop year and the lowest since 2005/06. Corn use for ethanol is expected to be 5.0 billion bushels, a drop from last month’s projection of 5.1 billion bushels caused by higher corn prices and a weakening outlook for U.S. gasoline demand. Soybean exports are projected to be 1.415 billion bushels, 80 million bushels less than last year. Overall, WASDE production projections for the new crop of wheat, corn, and soybeans are 17.7 billion bushels, a 2 percent reduction from last year. This year’s crops have been adversely impacted by widespread disruptive weather that included extensive flooding and late-season droughts. On Thursday morning (September 15), an early freeze covered portions of the upper Midwest, including North Dakota, Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, northern Iowa, and parts of Wisconsin. Early frosts and prolonged freezing temperatures could impact crop development; final assessments will be made before the peak harvest season.