Projected Wheat Exports Are Lowered This Month

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels higher withreduced prospects for exports this month. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels with reductions projected for hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat.

Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply-and-use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade.

Ending stocks for 2011/12, at 878 million bushels, are projected to be up 16 million from last year, but down 98 million from the recent high in 2009/10. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered slightly to$7.05 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $7.05 to $7.75 last month.

A sharp increase in wheat supplies in Australia, Argentina, and Canada is expected to intensify competition for U.S. exports during the latter half of 2011/12. Global consumption is projected higher; however, global ending stocks also rise, putting additional pressure on wheat prices. U.S. wheat export prospects are reduced on increased competitor supplies and the slow pace of sales.