Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply-and-use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade.
Ending stocks for 2011/12, at 878 million bushels, are projected to be up 16 million from last year, but down 98 million from the recent high in 2009/10. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered slightly to$7.05 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $7.05 to $7.75 last month.
A sharp increase in wheat supplies in Australia, Argentina, and Canada is expected to intensify competition for U.S. exports during the latter half of 2011/12. Global consumption is projected higher; however, global ending stocks also rise, putting additional pressure on wheat prices. U.S. wheat export prospects are reduced on increased competitor supplies and the slow pace of sales.