Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Global Wheat Ending Stocks Edge Up; Black Sea Shrinks, Traditional exporters Expand

Global wheat production is projected to reach 672 million tons, down 8 million from last year, but the large stock carry-in will more than offset the forecast decline, which will continue to pressure prices. This is the third expected bumper wheat crop in a row. Global consumption is projected to expand to 668 million tons, up nearly 16 million from last year, and is mostly due to additional feed demand in Russia and the EU, plus strong EU ethanol demand. Global trade is up marginally in 2010/11.

A key price factor for the world wheat market is the growing stocks held by traditional exporters; Australia, Canada, the EU, Argentina and the United States. Stocks in Russia and Ukraine are expected to decline, which may provide export opportunities for Kazakhstan.

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