Thursday, November 18, 2010

AgResource sees 2011 global wheat output rebound

Reuters reported today that global wheat output could recover to 661.5 million tonnes in 2011/12, up from 639.8 million tonnes this year, mainly boosted by a rebound in production in the former Soviet Union, analyst AgResource said on Wednesday.

In its first estimate for next year's crops given to Reuters on the sidelines of a global grain conference, the analyst pegged the 2011 harvest for the 12 so-called "FSU" countries at 96.80 million tonnes versus 82.70 million in 2010. Of this, Russia would produce 52.3 million tonnes, up from 41.0 million tonnes this year after drought ravaged its crop, which prompted the country to close its door on exports. Despite the rise in output, global wheat stocks would fall to 156.29 million tonnes by June 30, 2012, against 169.88 million tonnes estimated at the end of the current campaign, AgResource President Dan Basse said.

The analyst pegged the 2011 corn production at an all-time record of 848.99 million tonnes, versus 818.52 million tonnes this year, due to a larger area sown in the United States and hopes that China would also expand production. He did not have
regional forecasts for corn output. World corn stocks were expected to fall next season, to 112.07 million tonnes versus 129.16 million tonnes in 2010/2011,
due to an expected spike in demand notably in China and Russia.

AgResource did not provide 2011 production estimates for other crops such as soybeans.

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