Friday, May 27, 2011

Wheat and Corn Outlook Remains Tight

The Grain: World Markets and Trade report, published by USDA finds this could be another year of volatile prices with tight exportable supplies of corn and wheat. In contrast, the rice world supplies are relatively abundant.

Against the backdrop of low carry-in corn and wheat stocks, expectations of a large rebound in global exportable supplies now remain uncertain after delayed corn plantings in the United States, reduced U.S. winter wheat production, continued dryness in the EU, and wet conditions in Canada.

Global corn production is forecast up 52 MMT over last year, with the United States expected to account for half of the gain. However, nearly all of the growth in global corn consumption is expected to come from foreign demand, in countries such as Brazil, China, and Mexico. For wheat, the year-to-year gain in production is a more modest 21 MMT, with more than three-quarters of the rebound coming from larger expected crops in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. As a result, production and consumption are expected to be in balance, compared to last year’s shortfall of 14 MMT.

Corn and wheat ending stocks in the exporting countries are up slightly year-to-year, leaving little supply cushion in the event of adverse weather impacting crops. For corn, the exporting countries are: Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. For wheat the exporters include: Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, United States, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine.

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