Expectations that prices in the next few months will hit the record levels of 2007/08levels are not substantiated by the reality of the global supply situation. Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) wheat exports are expect to plummet 60 percent (21MMT) on drought-reduced crops. However, traditional exporters, particularly the United States, are holding large supplies that are more than sufficient to compensate for the black sea shortfall. In fact, U.S. ending stocks at 26 million tons are three times larger than just a few years ago.
More information about grain prices can be found at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/
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